A Jobs Blowout Puts the Fed Back in Hike Mode |
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- US payrolls smash forecasts. October jobs rose 165K against roughly 65K expected, unemployment dipped to 4.1% and wages grew 0.4% on the month. Markets now price a December Fed hike at around 70 to 80%.
- The Aussie takes the hit. AUD/USD fell 0.92% to 0.6864 on Friday night, its lowest close since late March, and lost 2.4% across the week.
- Chip stocks steady, Iran talks advance. Dip buyers lifted semiconductors after Thursday’s 5% Nasdaq rout, while the US and Iran are reported to be edging closer to a deal.
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Still in play: the RBA’s split 4.85% hike and talk of a peak, the BoE’s move to 4.00%, and December RBNZ hike bets after soft Kiwi jobs. |
Key Message: A jobs surprise has flipped the Fed debate back to hiking and pushed the Aussie to a seven-month low. Wednesday morning’s US CPI is now the pivot for the week. |
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Overnight (previous session) Open | High | Low | Close | Change | 0.6928 | 0.6942 | 0.6854 | 0.6864 | â–Ľ Lower -0.92% |
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A far stronger US jobs report sent Treasury yields and the dollar higher and knocked AUD/USD from 0.6928 to a 0.6854 low before a 0.6864 close. The path of least resistance stays lower this week unless US CPI undershoots, with the 20-day average at 0.6988 now capping bounces and an RSI of 33 showing the pair is close to oversold. Friday’s 0.6854 low is the first level to watch beneath the market. |
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Pair | Weekly Direction | Range Bias | AUD/USD | â–Ľ Lower | Heavy under 0.69 after the payrolls shock. Wednesday’s US CPI decides whether the slide extends or pauses. | AUD/EUR | â–Ľ Lower | Euro has the firmer story. Hot eurozone inflation keeps a December ECB hike alive while risk jitters weigh on the Aussie. | AUD/GBP | â–Ľ Lower | Sterling carries rate momentum after a unanimous BoE hike. Thursday’s UK GDP is the only real hurdle. | AUD/JPY | â—„â–şNeutral | Two forces cancel out. Higher US yields hurt the yen, but any fresh AI wobble sends havens bid again. | AUD/NZD | â—„â–şNeutral | Both currencies are nursing bruises. Kiwi jobs were soft, yet a December RBNZ hike is still expected, so the cross stays boxed in. |
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Data key: ▲ Higher  | ◄► Neutral  | ▼ Lower |
Upcoming Data Releases This Week |
Date | Release | Prior | Forecast | Impact | Mon 9 Nov
11:30am AEDT | AU Building Approvals m/m (final) | -5.2% | 5.1% | Low | Mon 9 Nov
12:30pm AEDT | CN CPI y/y | 0.9% | 0.8% | High | Tue 10 Nov
10:30am AEDT | AU Westpac Consumer Sentiment (index / m/m) | 80.4
-4.7% | 78.3 (TE)
-2.6% (TE) | Low | Tue 10 Nov
11:30am AEDT | AU NAB Business Confidence | -13 | -14 (TE) | Low | Tue 10 Nov
2:00pm AEDT | CN Trade Balance (USD) | $133.53B | $126.5B | High | Wed 11 Nov
12:30am AEDT | US CPI m/m / CPI y/y / Core CPI m/m / Core CPI y/y | 0.6%
3.7%
0.3%
2.6% | 0.3%
3.9%
0.2%
2.8% | High | Wed 11 Nov
11:30am AEDT | AU Home Loans q/q / Investment Lending q/q | -1.9%
-10.2% | -6.0% (TE)
-14.0% (TE) | Low | Thu 12 Nov
11:00am AEDT | AU MI Consumer Inflation Expectations | 5.3% | 5.4% (TE) | Low | Thu 12 Nov
6:00pm AEDT | UK GDP q/q (prelim Q3) / GDP y/y / GDP m/m (Sep) | 0.5%
1.4%
0.1% | 0.7%
1.7% (TE)
0.0% | High | Fri 13 Nov
9:00pm AEDT | EU GDP q/q (2nd est Q3) / GDP y/y | 0.6%
1.2% | 0.4%
1.3% | High | Sat 14 Nov
12:30am AEDT | US PPI m/m / Core PPI m/m / PPI y/y / Core PPI y/y | 1.3%
0.7%
6.3%
5.0% | 0.4%
0.3%
6.6%
5.0% | High |
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Public holidays: Wed 11 Nov is Veterans Day in the US (bond market closed, stock market open) and Remembrance Day in Canada; France and Belgium observe Armistice Day. No market holidays in AU, UK, NZ or China. (TE) marks a Trading Economics forecast where no market consensus was published. |
